| PJM | Severe | 90 / 100 | Tightening | High | The 2028/2029 auction cleared at its $325/MW-day cap with a 6,831 MW reliability shortfall. FERC accepted the backstop proposal but suspended effectiveness until February 28, 2027, subject to further proceedings; PJM did not launch the previously planned September 30 procurement. | PJM now combines scarce capacity with operating requirements for computational loads. New and existing AI campuses should budget for higher capacity costs, possible curtailment exposure, and electrical-control or backup-power changes needed to remain connected through normal voltage and frequency disturbances. | PJM Inside Lines — Reliability Backstop Decision |
| ERCOT | Severe | 95 / 100 | Tightening | High | Texas halted TCEQ data-center permits on September 21 pending the ERCOT audit, adding permitting to the existing interconnection gate. The August audit directive cited more than 474 GW of requests, about 90% from data centers; requested load is not commissioned capacity. | The audit makes compliance, self-supply, water use, and community-impact disclosure immediate gates to energization. Texas remains a major build market, but projects cannot treat an ERCOT queue position as a dependable schedule until the audit clears them. | Office of the Texas Governor — Data Center Permit Halt |
| Southeast | Elevated | 65 / 100 | Tightening | Medium | Georgia approved 9,985 MW of new generation in December 2025, with roughly 80% of expected growth attributed to data centers. Forecast uncertainty and the cost of serving committed loads remain the constraints; approved generation is not commissioned data-center supply. | Heavy utility commitments and new gas-plus-storage, but contested load forecasts and rate/tariff decisions add cost and approval risk. | Georgia PSC — Data Center Fact Sheet |
| MISO | Moderate | 55 / 100 | Easing | Medium | The 2026/27 auction met adequacy requirements in every season. Summer North/Central capacity cleared at $424.30/MW-day; fall cleared at $33.92/MW-day. These seasonal auction prices are distinct from retail energy rates and do not guarantee large-load interconnection. | More near-term headroom than PJM or ERCOT, but interconnection timelines lengthen as large-load requests grow. | MISO — 2026/27 Planning Resource Auction |
| CAISO | Moderate | 50 / 100 | Stable | Medium | California’s May assessment found the grid well positioned for summer 2026 after adding more than 6 GW of nameplate resources in each of the preceding two years. That historical assessment does not establish current campus access; large-load cost allocation remains a watch item. | Lower AI-campus pressure than PJM or ERCOT; high prices and interconnection-policy uncertainty are the watch items. | California Energy Commission |
| SPP | Watch | 45 / 100 | Tightening | Medium | SPP proposes CHILL conditional service and HILLGA generation assessment to speed large-load studies. Its published target is a path to interconnection agreements within 90 days, with possible curtailment under CHILL; this is not a guarantee of energized firm service. | Faster studies may shorten an access decision, but proposed tariff status, curtailment exposure, network upgrades, and energization remain separate deployment risks. | SPP — High Impact Large Load Integration |
| Pacific Northwest | Moderate | 50 / 100 | Stable | Medium | Northwest planners put new data-center and chip-fab growth at roughly 1.5–5.0 average GW by 2030; BPA's 2026 study still flags hydro, transmission, and peak-capacity uncertainty as Provider of Choice obligations are finalized. | Low-cost hydro remains attractive, but transmission availability, hydro variability, and the need for flexible large-load designs limit how quickly firm new compute load can energize. | BPA — 2026 Loads & Resources Study (White Book) |
| National | Elevated | 75 / 100 | Tightening | Medium | AI data-center load growth is outpacing grid planning in the highest-demand regions (PJM, ERCOT, Southeast). | Power remains a binding medium-term constraint on GPU cloud capacity, concentrated in the Eastern Interconnection. | Load-weighted composite |