| PJM | Severe | 90 / 100 | Tightening | High | The 2028/2029 auction cleared at its $325/MW-day cap 6,831 MW short of the Reliability Requirement, and PJM has now proposed ride-through standards after nearly 4,000 MW of Northern Virginia data-center load disconnected during a July disturbance. Large Loads are forecast to add about 70 GW by 2038 against about 15 GW of generation retired since 2022. | PJM now combines scarce capacity with operating requirements for computational loads. New and existing AI campuses should budget for higher capacity costs, possible curtailment exposure, and electrical-control or backup-power changes needed to remain connected through normal voltage and frequency disturbances. | PJM Inside Lines — Large Load Ride-Through Proposal |
| ERCOT | Severe | 95 / 100 | Tightening | High | Texas ordered PUCT and ERCOT to audit every data-center project before any can advance through interconnection. ERCOT was considering more than 474 GW of connection requests—over five times its record peak—with about 90% attributed to data centers. | The audit makes compliance, self-supply, water use, and community-impact disclosure immediate gates to energization. Texas remains a major build market, but projects cannot treat an ERCOT queue position as a dependable schedule until the audit clears them. | Office of the Texas Governor — Comprehensive Data Center Audit |
| Southeast | Elevated | 65 / 100 | Tightening | Medium | Utilities planning 10+ GW of new capacity for data centers (Georgia Power ~10 GW; Southern 50 GW pipeline; Dominion 47 GW contracted), though independent analysts call the forecasts aggressive. | Heavy utility commitments and new gas-plus-storage, but contested load forecasts and rate/tariff decisions add cost and approval risk. | Georgia PSC — Data Center Fact Sheet |
| MISO | Moderate | 55 / 100 | Easing | High | 2026/27 capacity prices eased (summer $424/MW-day, down from a $666 record); adequacy met across all zones but flagged at risk as large loads accelerate. | More near-term headroom than PJM or ERCOT, but interconnection timelines lengthen as large-load requests grow. | Utility Dive |
| CAISO | Moderate | 50 / 100 | Stable | High | Modest data-center forecast (+1.8 GW by 2030); summer 2026 assessed well-positioned with ~8 GW of new resources, but large-load cost allocation and 'pulsating' loads remain unresolved. | Lower AI-campus pressure than PJM or ERCOT; high prices and interconnection-policy uncertainty are the watch items. | California Energy Commission |
| SPP | Watch | 45 / 100 | Tightening | Medium | Peak load projected to nearly double (56 to 105 GW over 10 years); 26+ GW of >100 MW load requests (9 GW data centers), served by new but curtailable large-load tariffs (HILL/CHILL). | Current headroom and a fast 90-day interconnection path, but curtailable terms and future growth temper long-term firmness. | SPP — High Impact Large Load Integration |
| Pacific Northwest | Moderate | 50 / 100 | Stable | Medium | Northwest planners put new data-center and chip-fab growth at roughly 1.5–5.0 average GW by 2030; BPA's 2026 study still flags hydro, transmission, and peak-capacity uncertainty as Provider of Choice obligations are finalized. | Low-cost hydro remains attractive, but transmission availability, hydro variability, and the need for flexible large-load designs limit how quickly firm new compute load can energize. | BPA — 2026 Loads & Resources Study (White Book) |
| National | Elevated | 75 / 100 | Tightening | Medium | AI data-center load growth is outpacing grid planning in the highest-demand regions (PJM, ERCOT, Southeast). | Power remains a binding medium-term constraint on GPU cloud capacity, concentrated in the Eastern Interconnection. | Load-weighted composite |